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THIS ARTICLE AIMS TO REVIEW THE PROGRESS MADE IN ARMS CONTROL VERIFICATION SYSTEMS SINCE THE BEGINNING OF AGREEMENTS ON LIMITING ARMAMENTS AFTER THE SECOND WORLD WAR UP TO THE PRESENT DAY. THE OBJECTIVE IS TO DRAW LESSONS OF A GENERAL POLITICAL CHARACTER AS WELL AS TO ESTABLISH WHICH STANDARDS HAVE BEEN ACHIEVED AND CAN EASILY BE APPLIED IN OTHER AGREEMENTS OR REGIONS IF NEGOTIATORS LOOK FOR MODELS TO SOLVE THE PROBLEMS BEFORE THEM. EXAMINING THE VERIFICATION SYSTEMS OF ARMS CONTROL AGREEMENTS AS THEY EMERGED THROUGH POST-WAR HISTORY, THE ARTICLE DISTINGUISHES+ THREE PERIODS: THE REAL COLD WAR, THE PERIOD OF DETENTE, AND THE PHASE OF ARMS CONTROL REVOLUTION SINCE GORBACHEV TOOK POWER IN THE FORMER SOVIET UNION IN 1985.

SummaryEstimation of dates of delivery by extrapolation of progress‐data for a project.The problem can be put in mathematical form with the aid of some assumptions with regard to the occurrence of interruptions.The progress of the project is supposed to be interrupted by time‐intervals during which progress is fully stopped. These intervals start at irregularly distributed moments and have a variable size. The points on the time axis corresponding with the moments of stagnation will show a constant average density, if a constant average production capacity or development capacity is available. This means that the results are valid only if no alterations are made which influence the general progress of the project involved.The application of probability theory to problems connected with promises of delivery may, in general, look unacceptable.Many projects, however, have an experimental character and unforeseen technical and organisational troubles are unavoidable.In such cases the theory makes it possible to obtain a maximum amount of information contained in the progress‐data and may help management to make the best decisions.

THE CLOCK OF THE 'BULLETIN OF THE ATOMIC SCIENTISTS' IS NOW AT 3 MINUTES TO TWELVE. THIS INDICATES AN ALARMING CONCERN WITH THE STATE OF THE WORLD, AND THE REASON IS, OF COURSE, THE BAD SHAPE OF SUPERPOWER RELATIONS. HOWEVER, THE PRESENT MOOD OF 'FIN DE SIECLE' IS NOT CONFINED TO THE LIBERAL SPECTRE OF THE EDUCATED WESTERN PUBLIC. DARK AND OMINOUS. SOMETIMES WILDLYFATALIST COMMENTS AND PREDICTIONS ABOUT THE FATE OF THE (WESTERN) WORLD ARE EMERGING FROM THE CONSERVATIVE SIDE. A DISTURBING MOOD OF DECAY, DISARRAY AND DISORDER UNHEARD OF SINCE SPENGLER'S UNTERGANG DES ABENDLANDES' CHARACTERIZES EDITORIALS IN THE PRESS OF THE RIGHT. ON BOTH SIDES OF THE POLITICAL SCENE, FEAR OF WAR MUST BE PUT IN THE PRESPECTIVE OF DECLINING ORDER, OF A WORLD WHICH IS THREATENED BY DISSOLUTION. AND INDEED, THERE IS REASON FOR CONCERN. INTERNATIONAL REGIMES OF MANY ISSUE AREAS, WHICH A LITTLE MORE THAN A DECADE AGO IT WAS HOPED WOULD PRESENT FIRST BUILDING BLOCKS FOR THE CONSTRUCTION OF AN ORDERLY WORLD, ARE BROKEN DOWN (LIKE ENERGY, THE MONETARY SYSTEM OF BRETTON WOODS, FOOD, THE LAW OF THE SEA). SERIOUSLY ERODING (LIKE NON-PROLIFERATION OF THE GATT TRADE REGIME AND THE MONETARY SYSTEM OF FLEXIBLE EXCHANGE RATES) OR ACUTELY THREATENED BY EROSION (LIKE THE STABILITY OF DETERRENCE): NEW PROBLEMS WHICH DEMAND A RIGOROUS SOLUTION ARE LEFT IN CHAOS WITHOUT PROSPECTS FOR A CONSENSUAL REGIME (LIKE ENVIRONMENTAL POLLUTION, THE NEW INFORMATION/ COMMUNICATION MEDIA, GENETIC RESOURCES).